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Let us see how things are shaping up for the upcoming announcement.
Key Factors to Watch for ETSY’s Q3 Results
Etsy’s improving marketplace fundamentals are expected to have supported gross merchandise sales (GMS) growth in the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, Etsy marketplace GMS increased 7.5% year over year to $2.58 billion, while active buyers reached approximately 87 million, increasing 350,000 sequentially. Gross buyer additions grew 7.1% year over year, while habitual and repeat buyer cohorts recorded their first sequential increases since 2023. Improving purchase frequency trends, higher average order values and resilient consumer demand are likely to have supported third-quarter performance. Etsy expects third-quarter GMS growth of 4-6% year over year.
Etsy’s investments in AI-powered personalization, discovery and matching are enhancing buyer engagement and improving the shopping experience. The company’s richer buyer profiles now cover more than 65 million buyers, enabling more relevant product recommendations across search, app feeds and personalized communications. These improvements contributed to 12.5% year-over-year growth in mobile app GMS in the second quarter, with visits per monthly active user and orders per visit also increasing. Continued improvements in search relevance, inventory discovery and app engagement are expected to have strengthened buyer conversion, purchase frequency and GMS growth in the third quarter of 2026.
Etsy’s improving advertising monetization and marketing efficiency are expected to have supported third-quarter revenue growth and profitability. In the second quarter, Etsy marketplace services revenues increased 11.2% year over year, benefiting from machine learning-driven improvements in Etsy Ads relevance and seller budget pacing. Offsite Ads also contributed to higher monetization, while improved product listing ad segmentation and targeted social marketing enhanced advertising efficiency. Additionally, organizational restructuring is expected to lower near-term operating expenses. These factors likely supported the quarter under review, for which Etsy projects a take rate of approximately 26% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28-30%.
However, Etsy’s profitability is expected to have suffered from restructuring-related expenses in the quarter under review. The company announced plans to eliminate approximately 220 positions, representing 12% of its workforce, with an estimated $35 million in restructuring charges, primarily comprising severance payments, employee benefits and related costs. These charges, expected to be incurred by the end of the third quarter, are likely to have weighed on GAAP profitability and cash flows. Moreover, workforce reductions concentrated in product and engineering could have created near-term operational disruptions, potentially affecting execution efficiency.
What Our Model Says About ETSY Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Etsy this time around. According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here, as you can see below.
ETSY has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% at present and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat earnings in their upcoming releases:
FIGS, Inc. (FIGS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. FIGS’ shares have surged 77.8% year to date. FIGS is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 5. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Sweetgreen (SG - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of +4.26% and a Zacks Rank #2. SG’s shares have gained 45.2% year to date. SG is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 5.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.97% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. MUSA’s shares have risen 32.4% year to date. MUSA is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Etsy's Q3 Earnings Ahead: What's in Store for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY - Free Report) is slated to report third-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on Oct. 28.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $666.15 million, down 1.75% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $1.34 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating robust year-over-year growth of 112.7%.
Etsy’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average positive surprise of 20.95%.
Etsy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Etsy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Etsy, Inc. Quote
Let us see how things are shaping up for the upcoming announcement.
Key Factors to Watch for ETSY’s Q3 Results
Etsy’s improving marketplace fundamentals are expected to have supported gross merchandise sales (GMS) growth in the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, Etsy marketplace GMS increased 7.5% year over year to $2.58 billion, while active buyers reached approximately 87 million, increasing 350,000 sequentially. Gross buyer additions grew 7.1% year over year, while habitual and repeat buyer cohorts recorded their first sequential increases since 2023. Improving purchase frequency trends, higher average order values and resilient consumer demand are likely to have supported third-quarter performance. Etsy expects third-quarter GMS growth of 4-6% year over year.
Etsy’s investments in AI-powered personalization, discovery and matching are enhancing buyer engagement and improving the shopping experience. The company’s richer buyer profiles now cover more than 65 million buyers, enabling more relevant product recommendations across search, app feeds and personalized communications. These improvements contributed to 12.5% year-over-year growth in mobile app GMS in the second quarter, with visits per monthly active user and orders per visit also increasing. Continued improvements in search relevance, inventory discovery and app engagement are expected to have strengthened buyer conversion, purchase frequency and GMS growth in the third quarter of 2026.
Etsy’s improving advertising monetization and marketing efficiency are expected to have supported third-quarter revenue growth and profitability. In the second quarter, Etsy marketplace services revenues increased 11.2% year over year, benefiting from machine learning-driven improvements in Etsy Ads relevance and seller budget pacing. Offsite Ads also contributed to higher monetization, while improved product listing ad segmentation and targeted social marketing enhanced advertising efficiency. Additionally, organizational restructuring is expected to lower near-term operating expenses. These factors likely supported the quarter under review, for which Etsy projects a take rate of approximately 26% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28-30%.
However, Etsy’s profitability is expected to have suffered from restructuring-related expenses in the quarter under review. The company announced plans to eliminate approximately 220 positions, representing 12% of its workforce, with an estimated $35 million in restructuring charges, primarily comprising severance payments, employee benefits and related costs. These charges, expected to be incurred by the end of the third quarter, are likely to have weighed on GAAP profitability and cash flows. Moreover, workforce reductions concentrated in product and engineering could have created near-term operational disruptions, potentially affecting execution efficiency.
What Our Model Says About ETSY Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Etsy this time around. According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here, as you can see below.
ETSY has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% at present and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat earnings in their upcoming releases:
FIGS, Inc. (FIGS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. FIGS’ shares have surged 77.8% year to date. FIGS is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 5. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Sweetgreen (SG - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of +4.26% and a Zacks Rank #2. SG’s shares have gained 45.2% year to date. SG is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 5.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.97% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. MUSA’s shares have risen 32.4% year to date. MUSA is set to report its third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 28.